Wave Model Validation
This page tracks how accurately four wave-forecast models -- MeteoFrance Wave, DWD GWAM, ECMWF WAM 0.25, and GFS Wave -- predict wave height, period, and direction, by comparing each model's forecasts against real observations from NDBC and partner buoys across the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and Pacific (including the Hawaiian Island chain). Click a buoy on the map, or pick one from the dropdown, to open its validation page; in the table below, click a column header to sort, or a model name to open that buoy's page. A buoy that goes offline is flagged rather than removed, so its forecast history stays available once it's reporting again. All figures reflect only data available as of each page's listed date.
Questions or requests can be directed to Dr. Les Bender at 011 979.218.1101 (please leave a voice message) or by email at les.bender@deepblueanalysis.com.
Analysis & Findings -- write-ups digging into patterns in the validation data, like how buoy type and siting affect model skill.
Overall Model Ranking
| Model | Wave Height Rank | Wave Period Rank | Wave Direction Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| MeteoFrance Wave | #1 | #3 | #3 |
| DWD GWAM | #4 | #4 | #4 |
| ECMWF WAM 0.25 | #2 | #2 | #1 |
| GFS Wave | #3 | #1 | #2 |
Each rank is a model's per-buoy rank (1 = best performer at that buoy, 4 = worst) summed across every buoy with data in all 4 lead-time bins for all 4 models, then re-ranked 1-4 overall (lowest total wins #1) -- Wave Height Rank: 26 buoys used; Wave Period Rank: 26 buoys used; Wave Direction Rank: 26 buoys used.
Easiest & Hardest Buoys to Forecast
| Variable | Best Forecast Buoy | % Within Threshold | Worst Forecast Buoy | % Within Threshold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wave Height | 41040 — North Equatorial One – 470 nm East of Martinique | 84% | 51201 — Pacific – Waimea Bay | 31% |
| Wave Period | 42035 — Western Gulf of Mexico – 20 nm East of Galveston, TX, USA | 90% | 51206 — Pacific – Hilo | 16% |
| Wave Direction | 52212 — Pacific – Ngaraard, Babeldaob, Palau | 95% | 51201 — Pacific – Waimea Bay | 28% |
Each percentage is that buoy's share of forecasts within threshold, averaged across all 4 models and every lead-time bin with data -- buoys need at least 100 scored forecasts total to be ranked -- Wave Height: 26 buoys used; Wave Period: 26 buoys used; Wave Direction: 26 buoys used.
Buoy status last checked:
All Buoys
| Station | Location | Buoy Type | Status | Validation links |
|---|